Brillsta set to release a video for "Follow Me".

Award-winning Nigerian superstar Brillsta is set to release the much-anticipated video of his Sophomore monster hit titled "follow me" on 14th March 2019.The video (directed by Mattmax) took a different phase from conventional Nigerian styles in terms of quality, clarity, location & Graphic delivery. 

According to his management, this video will be released on all national and international TV stations. It will also be released on all major music streaming sites for both free downloads and paid platforms. 

#Followme earns Brillsta the Nigerian Tourism Awards as the "Next-Rated Artist of the Year" the song has since then been getting international and local reviews.

Brillsta and his record label gave the news on Instagram @brillstaofficial and @equation1 respectively. A teaser was also released earlier this week. This project will certainly establish Brillsta as a force to reckon with in Africa and world music.

Watch a preview of the video here https://www.instagram.com/p/BukkQCFDDfS/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link

Watchmaking and the frauds

Finding a solution to your mechanical  watch problems is pretty easy. You consult  a watch repairer and he solves the problem. What if he discovers that what you purchased at premium price is a fake?  How do we identify fakes without tools to sample the interior? A review to assess this is treated in the next article.

data analysis and the future

Visit avlecentre.blogspot.com for updates.

Interview with director, Avle

There are hidden costs associated with the recent surge in the use of statistical and business systems. As ignored as they often are, it is important to factor them when developing a financial model analysis when designing projects that involve their use. Avle centre hopes to make such products available to all by their training programmes in statistical management.

Last week, we arranged for a meeting with the director. Characterized by his baritone voice and charisma, he no doubt left an impression on the interview team. This is an excerpt of the interview with him.

Interviewer: You are welcome to this session Mr Wei.

Wei: Thank you. I am very much delighted to be here. I am sometimes addressed by Mei. It has some origin in japanese art. You know, they have been into creation of art works and humanizing them for many years now.

Interviewer: Ok. We know you have a hectic schedule. We want you to discuss about avle centre and their obsession with bringing statistical analysis into managing our business systems.

Wei: Thanks. Unfortunately, I see most of business from a statistical point of view as I discussed the origin of my other name. Estimates for project investments are usually addressed at about 30 to 50 percent of actual project expenses. What this means is that an analyst will provide a figure to a client and as projects make progress, management of these organizations realise that they have massively undervalued their organizations. These lead to project shutdown and high turnover of employees. Avle realized that earlier. The name has actually been adapted from its original name which was designed to meet the need of its initial audience. With expansion from a mere viewership platform to an organization, the name avle centre was adopted.

Interviewer: So you believe that the main issue is with the problems organizations face in budget planning and project analysis.

Wei: You have clearly noted. Able centre has a mission to make a rigorous and more aggressive project analysis available. Because it is an expensive venture, the centre works with a small client network at the moment.

Interviewer: Could you go on with the discussion on project analysis.

Wei: Generally, the project being conceived is usually compared with existing projects of similar magnitude. This would guide the initial draft of funding to be committed. The one closest in terms of manpower hours , electricity or gas consumption is then compared with and the costs used as a guide. This is because these factors serve as an early guide for the amount a  project venture would likely consume. These cost indices form, from experience, the basis for many initiatives requiring huge capital outlay.

Let's analyze a situation where it costs 2 000 of a currency to build a home in an area (in the year 2010) with historical cost index of 102.2. We then estimate this index to become 114.3 by 2012.  With a current cost index estimated at 123.4 and 134.3 in different areas at the different years, building costs is estimated to become 2 430 in value. If this doesnt come out clear, the formula for obtaining future cost is the product obtained by multiplying the historical cost index ratio with the product of current cost ratio and the building cost. If this organization uses fresh concrete technology (with known setting times upon their delivery), our analysis come in handy in preventing future expenses that could be incurred in their projects.

Interviewer: Thank you Sir for your time.

Wei: Thank you. We will keep im touch on the changes with project analysis.

( avle centre provides project analysis services. Editor writes from Lagos).

Building business models

With our increasing need for predictability in our lives and investments, we have to rely on past events, whether related directly or not to guide us in our decisions. Plotting the output of these events over a long period forms the basis of most series analysis, whether financial or biological. Using systems to achieve these predictions with increasing accuracy is very important to many professionals. However diverse the fields, the background platform is rather similar. This is what we hope to discuss and make rather explanatory.

Firstly, a univariate analyses of input- and output series is fundamental.

The series should be plotted with available discrete data.Is the series stationary? If not: difference the series: (Xt = Xt-Xt-1.

Identification: what process generated the series? Tools: ACF and PACF.On the basis of ACF and PACF: estimate a model for the series with AR-and/or MA-parameters.

Testing the model: Does white noise represent the residuals? If not: modify the model on the basis of the ACF and PACF of the residuals.

For multivariate analysis, the approach is rather different.

Bivariate analysis of the relationship between Xt and Yt. Here, we plot (scattergram) (Yt against (Xt to detect outlier points. ((Yt = Yt-Yt-1)

Pre-whiten Xt and Yt. The residuals from the univariate model of Xt is the pre-whitened Xt given that the residuals are white noise. Estimate the cross-correlations (CCF) between the pre-whitened Xt and the pre-whitened Yt.

Are there any indications of a lag-structure? If so: construct a weighted input series that incorporates the lag-structure.

Determine the functional form between Xt and Yt .Estimate a bivariate model without noise parameters.

Identify the structure of the noise term on the basis of the ACF and PACF of the residuals.

Re-estimate the model including noise parameters.

Testing the model: Does white noise constitute the residuals. If not: modify the noise parameters on the basis of the ACF and PACF of the residuals, and re-estimate the model.

This gives a sound and direct approach for analysing time-series and providing an understanding of system dynamics.

Enquiry

For all enquiries and comments, contact veilkonsultant@gmail.com

Developing long period models for improved concrete design

There are hidden costs associated with the recent surge in the use of fresh concrete supply to ongoing construction systems. As ignored as they often are, it is important to factor them when developing a financial model analysis when designing projects that involve their use. Benefits of this would include reduced total cost and improved operational efficiency.

Financial Estimates

Estimates for project investments are usually targeted at about 30 to 50 percent of actual project expenses.
Generally, the project being conceived is usually compared with existing projects of similar magnitude. The one closest in terms of manpower hours , electricity or gas consumption is then compared with and the costs used as a guide. These cost indices form the basis for many construction initiatives require huge capital outlay.

Let's analyze a situation where it costs 2 000 000 dollars to build a home in an area (in the year 2010) with historical cost index of 102.2.

This HCI is also estimated to become 114.3 by 2012.
With CCI estimated at 123.4 and 134.3 in different areas at the different years, building costs is estimated to become 2 430 000 dollars in value.

Formula for obtaining future cost is HCI ratio * CCI ratio * Building Cost.

Therefore, using fresh concrete technology (which have their setting times known and provided upon their delivery) can come in handy in preventing future expenses that could be incurred in construction.

( Example culled from the Handbook of Civil Engineers, 2nd Edition).